This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly

Print version:

List of tables

List of figures

List of boxes

Preface

Acknowledgments

Preamble : some initial intuitions on financial fragility and the fickle nature of confidence

pt. I. Financial crises : an operational primer

1. Varieties of crises and their dates

Crises defined by quantitative thresholds : inflation, currency crashes, and debasement

Crises defined by events : banking crises and external and domestic default

Other key concepts

2. Debt intolerance : the genesis of serial default

Debt thresholds

Measuring vulnerability

Clubs and regions

Reflections on debt intolerance

3. A global database on financial crises with a long-term view

Prices, exchange rates, currency debasement, and real GDP

Government finances and national accounts

Public debt and its composition

Global variables

Country coverage

pt. II. Sovereign external debt crises

4. A digression on the theoretical underpinnings of debt crises

Sovereign lending

Illiquidity versus insolvency

Partial default and rescheduling

Odious debt

Domestic public debt

Conclusions

5. Cycles of sovereign default on external debt

Recurring patterns

Default and banking crises

Default and inflation

Global factors and cycles of global external default

The duration of default episodes

6. External default through history

The early history of serial default : emerging Europe, 1300

1799

Capital inflows and default : an "old world" story

External sovereign default after 1800 : a global picture. pt. III. The forgotten history of domestic debt and default

7. The stylized facts of domestic debt and default

Domestic and external debt

Maturity, rates of return, and currency composition

Episodes of domestic default

Some caveats regarding domestic debt

8. Domestic debt : the missing link explaining external default and high inflation

Understanding the debt intolerance puzzle

Domestic debt on the eve and in the aftermath of external default

The literature on inflation and the "inflation tax"

Defining the tax base : domestic debt or the monetary base?

The "temptation to inflate" revisited

9. Domestic and external default : which is worse? Who is senior?

Real GDP in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults

Inflation in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults

The incidence of default on debts owed to external and domestic creditors

Summary and discussion of selected issues

pt. IV. Banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes

10. Banking crises

A preamble on the theory of banking crises

Banking crises : an equal-opportunity menace

Banking crises, capital mobility, and financial liberalization

Capital flow bonanzas, credit cycles, and asset prices

Overcapacity bubbles in the financial industry?

The fiscal legacy of financial crises revisited

Living with the wreckage : some observations

11. Default through debasement : an "old world favorite"

12. Inflation and modern currency crashes

An early history of inflation crises

Modern inflation crises : regional comparisons

Currency crashes

The aftermath of high inflation and currency collapses

Undoing domestic dollarization. pt. V. The U.S. subprime meltdown and the second great contraction

13. The U.S. subprime crisis : an international and historical comparison

A global historical view of the subprime crisis and its aftermath

The this-time-is-different syndrome and the run-up to the subprime crisis

Risks posed by sustained U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world : the debate before the crisis

The episodes of postwar bank-centered financial crisis

A comparison of the subprime crisis with past crises in advanced economies

Summary

14. The aftermath of financial crises

Historical episodes revisited

The downturn after a crisis : depth and duration

The fiscal legacy of crises

Sovereign risk

Comparisons with experiences from the first great contraction in the 1930s

Concluding remarks

15. The international dimensions of the subprime crisis : the results of contagion or common fundamentals?

Concepts of contagion

Selected earlier episodes

Common fundamentals and the second great contraction

Are more spillovers under way?

16. Composite measures of financial turmoil

Developing a composite index of crises : the BCDI index

Defining a global financial crisis

The sequencing of crises : a prototype

Summary

pt. VI. What have we learned?

17. Reflections on early warnings, graduation, policy responses, and the foibles of human nature

On early warnings of crises

The role of international institutions

Graduation

Some observations on policy responses

The latest version of the this-time-is-different syndrome

Data appendixes

A.1. Macroeconomic time series

A.2. Public debt

A.3. Dates of banking crises

A.4. Historical summaries of banking crises

Notes

References

Name index

Subject index