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LIST OF TABLES xiii  LIST OF FIGURES xvii  LIST OF BOXES xxiii  PREFACE xxv  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxxvii  PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE xxxix      PART I: Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1  Chapter 1: Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 3  Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement 4  Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default 8  Other Key Concepts 14  Chapter 2: Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default 21  Debt Thresholds 21  Measuring Vulnerability 25  Clubs and Regions 27  Reflections on Debt Intolerance 29  Chapter 3: A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View 34  Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP 35  Government Finances and National Accounts 39  Public Debt and Its Composition 40  Global Variables 43  Country Coverage 43      PART II: Sovereign External Debt Crises 49  Chapter 4: A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 51  Sovereign Lending 54  Illiquidity versus Insolvency 59  Partial Default and Rescheduling 61  Odious Debt 63  Domestic Public Debt 64  Conclusions 67  Chapter 5: Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt 68  Recurring Patterns 68  Default and Banking Crises 73  Default and Inflation 75  Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default 77  The Duration of Default Episodes 81  Chapter 6: External Default through History 86  The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 86  Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story 89  External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture 89      PART III: The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 101  Chapter 7: The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 103  Domestic and External Debt 103  Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition 105  Episodes of Domestic Default 110  Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 111  Chapter 8: Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 119  Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle 119  Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default 123  The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" 124  Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? 125  The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 127  Chapter 9: Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? 128  Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129  Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129  The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors 133  Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues 136      PART IV: Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 139  Chapter 10: Banking Crises 141  A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises 143  Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace 147  Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization 155  Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices 157  Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? 162  The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited 162  Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 171  Chapter 11: Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" 174  Chapter 12: Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes 180  An Early History of Inflation Crises 181  Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons 182  Currency Crashes 189  The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses 191  Undoing Domestic Dollarization 193      PART V: The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 199  Chapter 13: The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison 203  A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath 204  The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis 208  Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis 208  The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis 215  A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies 216  Summary 221  Chapter 14: The Aftermath of Financial Crises 223  Historical Episodes Revisited 225  The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration 226  The Fiscal Legacy of Crises 231  Sovereign Risk 232  Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s 233  Concluding Remarks 238  Chapter 15: The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis:  The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 240  Concepts of Contagion 241  Selected Earlier Episodes 241  Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction 242  Are More Spillovers Under Way? 246  Chapter 16: Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil 248  Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index 249  Defining a Global Financial Crisis 260  The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype 270  Summary 273      PART VI: What Have We Learned? 275  Chapter 17: Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature 277  On Early Warnings of Crises 278  The Role of International Institutions 281  Graduation 283  Some Observations on Policy Responses 287  The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome 290      DATA APPENDIXES 293  A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series 295  A.2. Public Debt 327  A.3. Dates of Banking Crises 344  A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises 348  NOTES 393  REFERENCES 409  NAME INDEX 435  SUBJECT INDEX 443

We've been assured that the recession is over, but the country and the economy continue to feel the effects of the 2008 financial crisis, and people are still searching for answers about what caused it, what it has wrought, and how we can recover. This selection from the best-selling book This Time Is Different--the definitive history of financial crises, including the recent subprime meltdown--answers these questions and more. Princeton Shorts are brief selections excerpted from influential Princeton University Press publications produced exclusively in eBook format. They are selected with the

The Second Great Contraction : From "This Time Is Different."